Calcalist, Amitay Gazit, 14.07.2021
About two weeks ago, the National Economic Council sent a report to the government that did not receive much response. This is quite surprising, because the data that appeared in it are particularly disturbing. Judea and Samaria are expected to have a shortage of about 17,000 apartments, and the Jerusalem district will lack 13,000 apartments. The said report was written as part of a follow-up to the implementation of the strategic housing plan approved by the government in 2017. This is the first time the government's performance has been examined against the plan's targets, and it can be said that the score on this issue by governments serving here by 2020 has failed.
The shortage of apartments has accumulated since 2006, continuing to intensify in recent years despite government efforts to address the crisis, and the National Economic Council estimates it will deepen in the next two years. This pit is also growing because the authors of the report found that housing needs in 2019-2016 were about 25,000 housing units higher than the original forecast of the strategic plan. The gap between the forecast written 4 years ago and real needs will continue to accompany us until 2040, so they estimate Every year, an increase of 5,000-4,000 apartments is expected in demand for apartments, compared to the needs and goals set in 2017.
The forecast was that in the years 2021-2025 there will be a need for 55,000 new apartments every year, while the current need is for 60,000 apartments every year, and that is even before we have calculated the cumulative shortage created here in the last 15 years. In the last decade, the number of apartments whose construction began each year has always been around 52,000, with a one-time jump in 2016 - when construction began on 56,000 apartments.
The follow-up report mentions that in the years 2015-2006, there was a national cumulative shortage of 90,000 dwellings in Jewish and mixed localities. More than half of the gap was recorded in the Tel Aviv district (20,000 dwellings) and central (28,000 dwellings). A cumulative cumulative of 11,000 apartments.
In the years 2019-2016, there was a change in the trend. In some areas, there is a surplus of construction finishes in front of housing needs - mainly in the Northern District and the Hadera sub-district. On the other hand, the shortage of housing units deepened, mainly in the central region, but also in the districts of Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, a significant shortage accumulated. Also in the years 2022-2020, an excess supply of construction completion is expected in the Northern District and in the Hadera and Beer Sheva sub-districts, in contrast to the needs estimated in the strategic housing plan, along with the deepening of the shortage of construction completion in the central region.
Because in the years 2019-2016 the national demographic growth was higher than forecast, the gap between the pace of apartment construction and needs deepened, adding to the gaps of the past. Thus, in the Central District, the shortage deepened within three years in another 13,000 apartments, in Tel Aviv by 4,000, in Judea and Samaria by 6,000 and in Ashkelon by 3,000.
According to the pace of construction starts in recent years, in 2022-2020 the shortage is expected to deepen, especially in the Central District - where in the next two years the gap is expected to grow by another 6,000 apartments, reaching a shortage of 47,000 apartments. In the Tel Aviv district, the gap is expected to increase by another 1,000 apartments, and in total the cumulative gap in the Tel Aviv district in 2022 will be 25,000 apartments. In the Jerusalem district, the gap will increase by another 3,000 apartments and will reach a cumulative shortage of 16,000 apartments. Hoz's forecast also has an optimistic part, because it seems that in the rest of the country the shortage of apartments is expected to shrink - or at least not increase. But, despite the increase in the supply of apartments in the north and south, the demand for apartments in the center of the country remains rigid. Again we see that the hope that cheap apartments in the periphery will lead to massive migration is not realized, and that the construction and over-planning in the periphery simply do not address the housing needs in the demand areas.
Against the background of the decision to repeal TAMA 38 in 2022, the report presents the government with a bright warning sign. It shows that in the years 2019-2015, 37,000 new apartments were built throughout the country in urban renewal, 75% of them within the framework of TAMA 38 and only 25% in construction clearance procedures. This is when in 2019-2016, 61% of construction starts in the Tel Aviv district were in proceedings In other words: if the replacement for NPA 38 does not stimulate the market in the same way, the shortage of apartments in the heart of the demand area is likely to intensify. The National Economic Council notes that the solution aimed at by the planning director - plans to evacuate construction of complexes with several buildings - is a planning priority because they allocate supportive housing infrastructure and the potential for additional housing. On the other hand, TAMA 38 projects have so far been much easier and more accessible to carry out.
Much of the shortage is addressed through illegal construction
The report presents a particularly gloomy situation in the localities of the Arab sector, where from 2006 to 2022 there will be a shortage of about 100,000 apartments compared to the needs. In the Haifa District, 11,000 apartments will be built compared to the need for 27,000 apartments; in the Southern District, 8,000 apartments will be built compared to the need for 34,000 apartments.
The authors of the report estimate that “the cumulative shortage is so significant that a significant proportion of it is likely to be addressed through illegal construction, whose natural design and construction quality is very poor, which indirectly affects many areas other than the housing market. This is probably due to difficulties in regulating land ownership and the lack of infrastructure. "
In conjunction with the profit line
The last chapter of the report refers to the residential planning objectives as defined in the strategic plan. The planning director is praised for the fact that the number of apartments in the approved plans was much higher than the targets set. In the northern, southern and Haifa districts, areas where there is no significant shortage of construction finishes in relation to the demand for housing units. "
YOO Towers in Tel Aviv
( Photo: Uriel Cohen )
In fact, it was found that in some areas of the country there was excess and unnecessary planning, so it is recommended to reduce the planning targets for 2030 in areas where there is a significant planning surplus - especially in the Beer Sheva area. In addition, it is recommended to stipulate that planning goals should not be exceeded by more than 5% in each area.
In conclusion, the authors of the report recommend that the government focus specifically on the development of the metro in the central region, since "a delay in providing a transportation solution will lead to a significant increase in unregulated and illegal housing solutions." "Local authorities have a negative incentive to bring in residents, because every additional resident is a loss to the authority, compared to employment and commercial areas."